A friend recently sent me a link to a New York Times column about a growing exodus of Facebook users. I’ve seen the story, or its type, many times before.  I call those stories, “QUBE 2.” The gist was that the social medium has now been around long enough that people have discovered it’s drawbacks or that it’s become so mainstream that the tragically hip have packed up and gone in search of the next big thing.

If the QUBE reference is unfamiliar, let me explain. I’ve spent nearly 30 years in interactive media, starting my career in 1980 at Warner Amex QUBE in Columbus, Ohio. QUBE was the world’s first interactive television operation, launched in Columbus (a major test market) in 1977. The system signed on with a tremendous amount of media fanfare, heralding the promise of the interactive application. Those stories I call “QUBE 1,” and they’re loaded with details of technical innovation and breathless optimism. Some of those reports can still be found in YouTube. if you’ve got the time and want a good laugh, see what the networks were calling the wave of the future in 1977. 

Give it a few months or years and then one day you open your paper, turn on your TV or radio, or log onto your news feed and you’ll find the “QUBE 2″ story. That piece will include statements of disillusionment and unmet audience and/or revenue expectations. The only things that change are the names.

But, does “QUBE 2″ equate to an obit? No. But it should be a wake-up call.

The interactive part of QUBE shut down in 1984 but that obviously didn’t put an end to interactive media. One of the greatest gifts QUBE gave me was an appreciation for metrics, finding out what audiences responded to and why. And if you or someone in your organization isn’t buried in metrics reports on a daily basis, you’re flying blind.

So, let’s get back to Facebook.  Is it time to give up on it?  Probably not.  At this point there are still more people coming to it than leaving it.  Social media costs you little more than an investment in time. You should be test driving every social medium that comes along. Skepticism is healthy but there’s nothing lost in finding out what it’s all about and establishing a presence. Play with it and see what it can do for you.  These things can be good for building community, giving your organization some personality, and generating news, sales or employment leads.  But their ultimate measure is how well they perform in driving audience to your core product. 

Let your metrics help you determine your ROI.  Is your strategy doing what you want it to?  Is it helping grow audience?  Are you getting traffic from Facebook?  Is the trend growing?

When do you jump? Not at the first sign of a “QUBE 2″ article. When the numbers suggest that your audience referrals are trending down over a period of time, then you should be prepared to either tweak how you’re using the medium or abandon it.

Be fearless and be nimble – quick to adopt, quick to experiment and quick to jump out – but only at the time when your numbers support it.