morgan stanley

Mobile Internet to bring sweeping changes

Access to the Internet by mobile devices will transform the world more quickly and both destroy and generate more wealth than any previous cycle in computing development, according to a report issued last week by Morgan Stanley Research.

From what I’ve looked at so far (It’s 442 pages long), it’s a fascinating document that suggests, among other things, that in five years more people will be accessing the Internet from mobile devices than from desktop computers.

According to the report, Apple’s iPhone, iTouch, iTunes and App Store have supplied the impetus to kick the mobile Internet into high gear hear in the U.S. and in many other places around the world. And, the report said, if you want to see where we’ll be in a few years, look to Japan, where the mobile Internet has been a way of life for most of the century’s first decade.

The report covers eight key themes. Of most interest to publishers and content producers:

⁃ Mobile is ramping up faster than the desktop Internet did and will be bigger than most people think;
⁃ Apple will continue to lead mobile innovation in the near term, but other competitors are already emerging;
⁃ Game-changing communications / commerce platforms are emerging rapidly, led by Apple and Facebook.

The most important lesson from the report is this: If you’ve been waiting for “mobile” to turn the corner, don’t wait anymore. Among the reports conclusions: “The rapid ramp of the mobile Internet, in short, will be a boon for consumers and some nimble incumbents and attackers, while other companies will simply wonder what just happened.”

The key change is mobile access to the Internet. We’re not just talking and texting on our cell phones anymore. We’re downloading books to our Kindles, getting on-the-fly directions from our GPS devices, buying and playing music with our MP3 players, and letting our cars notify OnStar when they crash.

Add a social networking site like Facebook to the mix, and now mobile access to the Internet allows you to play games, share photos, videos and stories and post messages — from anywhere. 

It’s clear that publishers of all types will need to think in terms of apps, not just advertising. According to the report, advertising and e-commerce (paid for by vendors and advertisers) dominate the desktop Internet. However, premium content revenue (paid for by users) dominates the mobile Internet so far. As of this year, just 5 percent of mobile Internet revenue comes from advertising.

In fact, in Japan, where mobile Internet use is years ahead of the rest of the world, just 2 percent of mobile Internet revenue comes from advertising. The rest comes from commerce (21 percent); paid services (11 percent); and data access (66 percent).

Technology is continuing to drive rapid changes through the publishing industry, and the pace of change isn’t going to slow. It’s time to embrace mobile.

The full Morgan Stanley report is available here.

 

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Teens don’t tweet, read newspapers or watch TV

Teens don’t tweet. They also don’t read newspapers or watch TV.

That prognosis is not from a well-researched study with a statistical sample, but from a 15-year-old intern working in Morgan Stanley’s London office. His report has torn up the blogosphere for its candid portrayal of his fellow Gen Y’ers.

What’s wrong with Twitter? The intern, Matthew Robson, says that it costs too much to send text messages to Twitter from a teen’s mobile phone. And then once it’s sent “no one is viewing their profile, so their tweets are pointless.” (That may change as smart phones with free WiFi connections proliferate.)

ComScore’s numbers back up Robson’s assumptions. In June 2009, only 4.4 percent of visitors to Twitter.com were younger then 18.

Robson’s mates also don’t read the newspaper (no surprise there). But it gets worse. Most teens “cannot be bothered to read pages and pages of text,” he says, and would rather see summaries online or on television.

This presumably should be good news for advertisers who are moving in increasing numbers to the Web. Not so fast, Robson says. Teens find advertising “extremely annoying and pointless,” he writes.

Where do teens spend their money? Movies, concerts and video game consoles.
 
Moving beyond teens, though, lots of other Internet users are tweeting. Twitter.com passed the 20 million unique mark in May according to ComScore, up 14 percent from May. Page views were up 21 percent. And this covers just visits to Twitter.com – estimates are that up to 50 percent of Twitter’s usage occurs via desktop and mobile clients.

Around the world, Twitter has about 37 million visitors a month.

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Latin America report …

Digital classifieds are growing in Latin America -- a mixed landscape of traditional media companies and intercontinental giants that are finding new opportunities.

The 64-page report, for sale here, is a compilation of analyses our clients have already received as recipients of Classified Intelligence Report.

(Clients can receive a copy for free -- just drop us a line.)

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