While the overall outlook for media in 2010 is cautiously optimistic, according to president Neal Polachek and other strategists at BIA/Kelsey, it’s no surprise that the consultants don’t hold out a whole lot of hope for a positive print year. The media research and analysis firm tracks many media platforms – radio, TV, newspaper, local cable, direct mail, Yellow Pages print and Web, Interactive which includes local search, Internet and mobile, and out of home.

“Things will be rosier in 2010,” said chief strategy officer Rick Ducey. “Deciding what kind of partnerships to form will become more critical in 2010.”

VP Mark Fratrik said that the financial meltdown in late 2008 created an ad drop-off in TV and radio much worse than anticipated, and while many broadcast companies defaulted on their financial covenants, many financial institutions decided not to take the stations over. He predicted that radio will bounce back, especially in the second half of 2010. “Advertisers are going to wait and see, making sure people get employed and are spending before they make significant increases in their advertising.” Audiences, he said, are generally holding steady in radio. He prediced a “decent” year for TV due to political ads. “There are more competitive races emerging every day – more open seats and contested primaries,” he said. “This means $1-2 billion in ad revenue to local stations.” He expects that some radio and TV groups will pick up low-priced properties to better compete.

Fratrik probably didn’t need a crystal ball for his prediction that newspaper revenue will continue to decline as readership continues to drop. “That may jeopardize some newspapers,” he said.

Charles Laughlin, VP and directory expert at BIA/Kelsey, reminded the audience of the earlier company prediction that major yellow page/directory firms might declare bankruptcy and or reorganize. As they did. He said that Idearc is soon to come out of bankruptcy. He talked about Sweden as a precursor of what might result in the U.S. – the Stockholm white pages book downsizing, making it comparable to the size of a U.S. companion book. “We’re seeing movement in this direction, though the miniaturized print footprint has yet to take place,” he said.

Laughlin also thought that independent directory publishers, especially those in the U.S., would see the end of their growth, with several large firms going under or being acquired under distressed terms. “Their performance has increased in the double digits in the past, and it’s now negative. There had been four or five books in some markets but that’s now widely unsustainable. Where it ends up is hard to say.” He doesn’t expect the independents to all go away, as some are strong in many places. He predicted the end of dedicated yellow page advertising sales staff, with organizations training their sales staff to sell multiple products. He gave the example of Truvo and Eniro who are making this sales transition.

He also foresaw an increase in white pages opt-in rather than the traditional opt-out, as legislation in Calif. is currently being discussed. The issue here, as AIM Group reported on recently, is that print white and yellow page delivery to every household has long been mandated by local or state legislatures, but consumers and environmentalists as well as some directory publishers  – notably AT&T – are now seeing opt-in home delivery as a cost savings as well. “The industry is trying to be self-regulatory as a result,” he said. “It’s probably inevitable, as much legislation is now in the works.”

Laughlin said that mobile platforms will continue to grow, and early indications are that publishers are keeping their mobile monetization separate, rather than packaged with other ad media products. He said publishers are heading to PPC

Matt Booth, SVP and program director for interactive local media, discussed the Interactive sector, and the earlier BIA/Kelsey prediction that SMBs would join in the conversations about their business, through reputation management and presence performance. ”We’re finally starting to see this via the new YellowBot platform about to launch,” he said. “Many want to partner for consumer reviews. I think publishers will be the first in this game, to shore up the loss of print with a better online mousetrap.”

Typically, small businesses and trade services have had half the Web site penetration of the professional services. Only 33 percent have Web sites, but this is expected to double in the next two year. “Before there was so much work for them they could choose the jobs they took,” said Booth. “That’s changed. So, the growth of small business spending for online search will grow robustly.” He told the Webinar audience that until the end of 2008 only 9 percent of small businesses used search, that recently dipped to 6 percent, but will end the year at 15-16 percent.

There will be more local content online and more advertorial, Booth predicted. “It’s hard to find a site these days that doesn’t carry CitySearch’s content and monetization model,” he said. Demand Media has already published one million pieces of content, and will now publish that same number each month, for example.

He also mentioned BIA/Kelsey’s earlier prediction of the Microsoft/Yahoo collaboration, and said he still believes the two giants are not “done on the deal front together, and with some other larger folks.” He expects an announcement of some such by the end of 2009 or early 2010.

A mass migration of ad dollars online, with lower CPM prices and so lower Web revenue overall was foreseen by Booth.

“There’s a ton of talk about social marketing, especially among small businesses,” said Booth. Companies that provide SEM and platform solutions will come together to create small business suites of products, he told us. While there are a ton of ways to target, according to Booth, geotargeted banners will grow at a rapid clip.

Unlike the current Google-dominated online search world, the market will become more competitive in light of the Bing/Yahoo deal. AoL will compete for search distribution, and CPC advertising will pick up as well, according to Booth.

VP and Marketplace guru Peter Krasilovsky just returned from the BIA/Kelsey annual Interactive Local Media Conference, attended by 500. He predicted ad models with social engagement, and mentioned that AutoTrader.com and Cars.com have already seen annual growth of $1 billion. He wondered aloud if this would extend beyond classifieds.

“In 2009 we saw many many more marketplaces funded by the VC [ventural capitalists] community,” he said. “At the conference last week several VCs said they were putting their money in the vertical marketplace arena – they saw a lot of news made by this arena.” While he noted the GM and EBay Motors collaboration didn’t work out so well, he found noteworthy companies like Angie’s List and Service Magic doing radio and TV spots.

“I’m very excited that you can now embed call to action information such as coupons inside video,” said Krasilovsky.  

Moving forward, he sees location social into marketplace sites. Oodle’s social local conversion, working with Wal-Mart and others, is one example of what he expects to see more of.

While he thought mobile would have become more commonplace in 2009, Krasilovsky pointed out some real mobile success stories. “Auto dealer shoppers are three times more quickly to click on hours, and directions from a mobile platform [than from the Internet],” he said. As others had mentioned, businesses would be building mini verticals by “sucking in Demand Media or Associated Content,” he thought. He noted as well the recent Zillow addition of rentals to its real estate mix, telling the audience that 25 percent of those looking at real estate also are studying a rental option. He told us about the Tree.com practice of building out 30-40 verticals around one common site. He expected others to follow suit.

Krasilovsky’s final prediction: “EBay has been missing in action even though grossing $8.5 billion,” he said. “We expect to see them really push hard. EBay failed to execute many of its unique strategies, but they do have 40 million users,” he said.

Senior analyst Michael Boland predicted 65 million mobile users in the U.S. in 2010. Greystripe, he pointed out, had recently announced that mobile performed 10-20 times better for it than the Internet.

Boland also foresaw a touch-screen smart phone free and carrier-subsidized. “Both Verizon nd T-mobile say 40 percent of new devices sold are smart phones,” he said. “I predict a steep growth in market share for Android, with an expectation of enablement on 50 devices by 2010′s end.” Boland thinks the IPhone will break free from AT&T, though the complexities in building that might hamper its progress. Should this happen, the IPhone market would expand to 99 million users. “I suggest that media stake a claim in this,” he said.

Voice and visual search will grow, though it’s a considerable data challenge, predicted Boland, who is also bullish on bar code apps that turn mobile phones into bar code readers.

“You can even read nearby competing stores,” he said. “One revenue model that could be developed is a bid marketplace – that’s starting to evolve. Advertisers could start buying scans for shoppers standing in front of store shelves.”

Mobile, Boland said, will move downmarket to SMBs and mid-market segments. “Now it’s mostly large brand advertisers and agencies – just like the Web was a decade ago,” he said. “At the early stage it’s just going to have to be dead simple for sales reps and advertisers to understand it.

Boland talked about Google, and its improvement in 411 for voice search in both English and Mandarin. He said that it won’t substitute for other types of search but will be incremental to desktop searches. “Drive time is especially conducive to voice,” he said.

Neal Polachek summarized the Webinar points – that economic indicators suggested 2010 would be better than 2009, though wouldn’t return to pre-recession activity.

“Job creation will be slow, with consumer spending guarded,” Polachek said. “The key drivers of automotive and housing will remain soft in 2010.” He also noted that the media sector will grow, though wouldn’t be able to demand rate increases during audience declines.  “There will be a continued shift from traditional to digital advertising, and if mobile gains traction digital will accelerate even more,” he concluded.