12/23/09

Access to the Internet by mobile devices will transform the world more quickly and both destroy and generate more wealth than any previous cycle in computing development, according to a report issued last week by Morgan Stanley Research.

From what I've looked at so far (It's 442 pages long), it's a fascinating document that suggests, among other things, that in five years more people will be accessing the Internet from mobile devices than from desktop computers.

According to the report, Apple's iPhone, iTouch, iTunes and App Store have supplied the impetus to kick the mobile Internet into high gear hear in the U.S. and in many other places around the world. And, the report said, if you want to see where we'll be in a few years, look to Japan, where the mobile Internet has been a way of life for most of the century's first decade.

The report covers eight key themes. Of most interest to publishers and content producers:

⁃ Mobile is ramping up faster than the desktop Internet did and will be bigger than most people think;
⁃ Apple will continue to lead mobile innovation in the near term, but other competitors are already emerging;
⁃ Game-changing communications / commerce platforms are emerging rapidly, led by Apple and Facebook.

The most important lesson from the report is this: If you've been waiting for "mobile" to turn the corner, don't wait anymore. Among the reports conclusions: "The rapid ramp of the mobile Internet, in short, will be a boon for consumers and some nimble incumbents and attackers, while other companies will simply wonder what just happened."

The key change is mobile access to the Internet. We're not just talking and texting on our cell phones anymore. We're downloading books to our Kindles, getting on-the-fly directions from our GPS devices, buying and playing music with our MP3 players, and letting our cars notify OnStar when they crash.

Add a social networking site like Facebook to the mix, and now mobile access to the Internet allows you to play games, share photos, videos and stories and post messages -- from anywhere. 

It's clear that publishers of all types will need to think in terms of apps, not just advertising. According to the report, advertising and e-commerce (paid for by vendors and advertisers) dominate the desktop Internet. However, premium content revenue (paid for by users) dominates the mobile Internet so far. As of this year, just 5 percent of mobile Internet revenue comes from advertising.

In fact, in Japan, where mobile Internet use is years ahead of the rest of the world, just 2 percent of mobile Internet revenue comes from advertising. The rest comes from commerce (21 percent); paid services (11 percent); and data access (66 percent).

Technology is continuing to drive rapid changes through the publishing industry, and the pace of change isn't going to slow. It's time to embrace mobile.

The full Morgan Stanley report is available here.