Cox Automotive has published its latest Insight Report, 2023/24 in collaboration with professional services company Grant Thornton.

This, its sixth annual report, includes predictions for future automotive trends and both the new and used car markets for 2024 in the U.K., Europe and other global markets. It also features analysis of other trends including the agency sales model, omnichannel, the rise of EVs, battery management and sustainability.

It predicts a baseline figure of 2,020,050 new vehicle registrations in the U.K. for 2024. That represents a 4.3% increase year-on-year (y-o-y), but continues the major decline seen since 2020, compared to the 2000-2019 average.

For the used car sector, Cox Automotive predicts 7,350,205 new registrations or changes of ownership. This represents a 2.8 y-o-y increase but a small decline of 0.3% on the 2001-2019 average. The analysis expects the figures to be influenced by issues including a gradual adoption of used battery electric vehicles, a U.K. economy that recovers moderately and managed growth in the supply of used vehicles.

The figures suggest 2024 will be a stable year for sales overall but the report predicts a bigger rise in registrations in successive years.

Cox Automotive’s Insight Report published three different scenarios but this, the baseline scenario, is the one it thinks is most likely to actually occur. The other two represent ‘upside’ and ‘downside’ scenarios.

The baseline hypotheses use models that anticipate ongoing economic pressures, continued impact of the agency sales model transition and the stabilising of global production volumes.

“Recent years in the automotive sector have seen a period of unprecedented change and tumult that are being driven by economic forces, geopolitics and technological innovation,” said Insight Report author and Cox Automotive’s insight director, Philip Nothard.

“We anticipate that the market will eventually be split between manufacturers who want profitability at the cost of volume and market share; and those who will return to a ‘push’ market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance.”

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